Wednesday, 7. februar 2001.

RETROSPECTIVE

New Yugoslavia - new division

Montenegro on the way to independence: From two eyes in one head, to second chair in the United Nations

Democratization of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia started on October 5, not 2000, but 1997. It was then that the presidential election battlefield was shared between Momir Bulatovic, until then the President of Montenegro, and Slobodan Milosevic's political activist, and Milo Djukanovic, the Prime Minister of Montenegro and the leader of the "reformist" wing of the Democratic Party of Socialists. The first round of the elections` did not yield a victor, but Djukanovic won the second by a small margin. The defeated "Momo's fraction" stepped out from the Democratic Party of Socialists and to form the Socialist People's Party. Soon, parliamentary elections were held in which Milo, together with the "Better Life" coalition defeated Momir again. This is how official Montenegrin politics begins "diverging" from the official FRY politics, becoming a catalyst for the future events in Serbia.

The situation seemed "simple" when viewed from aside: "the good guys" won once again. On the other hand the situation started becoming complicated after a detailed analysis of the "power" phenomena in Montenegro. Former FRY President Slobodan Milosevic's allies firmly held the levers of authority and also the opposition. Their party was also the strongest opposition party in Montenegro and they freely participate in the Federal Government even after the October 5 historical events.

New posts - same people

The Democratic Party of Socialist inherited the Montenegro Communist League, which it was created from, in power after the first multi-partied elections in Montenegro in 1990. A year before the Democratic Party of Socialists was founded, Momir Bulatovic was elected president of the Communist Union of Montenegro at the 10th Special congress. The secretary's seat was given to Milo Djukanovic. These two men were to play major roles in farther future of Montenegro: Momir became Presidential, while Milo vas elected to the less comfortable position of Prime Minister. The reign of the Democratic Party of Socialists did not differ much from the reign of the Socialist Party of Serbia in Serbia having in mind their similar political origin. The more than successful cooperation of these two parties at the Federal level was crowned with the adoption of the notorious "Zabljak Constitution". This constitution ratified the creation of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

"The golden era" of unified Democratic Party of Socialists reign in Montenegro was during the UN Security Council sanctions. Montenegrin authorities had substantial financial contributions from of "state profitable businesses" such as cigarette, alcohol and fuel smuggling, foreign currency exchange rates, and production material trade, according to Nebojsa Medojevic, director of "The Transition Center" independent organization. These businesses included high state officials, officials of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, members and friends of the highest-ranking people in Montenegrin political circles. All the participants were satisfied, as Medojevic describes, because the "pie" was so big that there was no need for any disputes.

The first problems arose after the sanctions were withdrawn in 1995 and the size of the businesses immensely declined. A struggle between interest groups regarding who will control all of the profitable enterprises started among the ruling officials of Montenegro. "The Democratic Party of Socialists is not an ideological party, but an interest group instead, which functioned the entire time. The fact that there were no arguments within the ruling party until that moment even though there were many more important political issues, e.g. the Bosnia and Herzegovina war, the Hague Tribunal and so on, only contributes to this belief ", Medojevic emphasizes.

Parliamentary elections in Montenegro were held, as soon as the sanctions were removed in 1996. The Peoples Party and the Liberal League of Montenegro formed the People's Concord coalition which was estimated as a worthy opponent by the Democratic Party of Socialists, still unified at that time. The Democratic Party of Socialists "barely" won a little more than 50% of the votes by manipulating the elections and formed the Republic Government on its own, while many spoke that the victory was stolen from the People's Concord. Federal and local elections were held in Serbia that same year, at which the anti-regime tone gained greater repute for the first time.

Everybody pleased

For Milo Djukanovic, this was a sign that Slobodan Milosevic's power was well shaken and that open confrontation with his authority could gain significant political points. The reason more for this was the anti-Milosevic atmosphere among the voters in the Montenegrin elections. Djukanovic therefore relied on the support of the Montenegrin opposition parties and their members. Finally, when he said that "Slobodan Milosevic is a politician of the past" in his "famous" interview for the weekly "Vreme" in February 1997 and that he "should not linger in the FRY political life", it was clear that the front was opened.

What happened next was a marathon fight between Milo and Momir. Bulatovic refused to abandon Slobodan Milosevic at any cost, while Djukanovic distanced himself from the Serbian President as much as possible. Meanwhile Milosevic used the last opportunity and became the president of the FRY after finishing both constitutionally guaranteed terms in office as a President of Serbia, while the fire in the Democratic Party of Socialists was not fully burning. However, time was on Milo's side and he gained greater support from the Democratic Party of Socialists with each passing day.

The greatest clash between the two close friends came when the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Socialists was to be determined. Djukanovic announced his run in the elections supported by the majority inside the party, but Bulatovic, who was previously supported by the majority could not live with that fact, and started legal proceedings involving the Montenegrin judiciary system. The case ended up the Federal court, which had no jurisdiction over such matters, as it turned out. A precedent was made in the end and the Democratic Party of Socialists had two presidential candidates.

Djukanovic won the second round of the elections with the opposition votes, and gradually gained full control of Montenegro. Bulatovic and with his supporters founded the Socialist People's Party and that represented a final division of two closest colleagues and party members. The Better Life coalition fronted by Djukanovic and the "damaged Democratic Party of Socialists" defeated Socialist People's Party in he Montenegrin parliamentary elections in 1998, and the newly elected Montenegrin president seal his victory once again. On the other hand, Bulatovic got "a job" close to the FRY President as the FRY Prime Minister after losing his office in Montenegro. Former colleagues in the unified Democratic Party of Socialists found new positions at two different levels of power.

Although everything seemed like a clash between the reformist and ancient regime, Nebojsa Medojevic claims that the illegal businesses continued as usual, and that it is a clear indication that the Democratic Party of Socialists was not of political nature, that the real political collision never existed. "The people in Milo Djukanovic's vicinity was better skilled in the clash of interests and took control of all the material and financial transactions", Medojevic says. He adds that political parties such as the Democratic Party of Socialists and People's Socialist Party have no strategy or ideology, but are rather oriented towards any kind of idea which can award them ruling positions.

"Whites" and "Greens" again among the Montenegrins

The foundations of the federal state started to shake after Milosevic's opposition triumphed in Montenegro. Milosevic and his satellites only accepted those Montenegrins who lost legitimacy at their home republic, and accused the new Montenegrin authorities of separatism on a daily basis. On the other hand, Montenegrin authorities only recognized the FRY president, but simultaneously accused him of destroying the federal state and attempting to conquer Montenegro. Djukanovic told Milosevic that he will have to cooperate with him, because he [Djukanovic] was elected by the will of the Montenegrin people, and if that does not happen, it would be clear that Milosevic is against the Yugoslav idea.

The situation in Montenegro was no better either. With the division of the Democratic Party of Socialists the majority of the population was also divided into two groups: pro-Montenegrin and pro-Serbian. Civil war was closely avoided during a series of incidents in January 1998. The results of the parliamentary and local election in 1998 also confirmed the polarity of the population: the Democratic Party of Socialists and the Socialist People's Party together secured 92,4% of the votes. The opposition was completely eliminated, and the Socialist People's Party, at least in the administrative sense, assumed its role.

The demise of that party's delegates' club in the Federal Assembly followed the demise of the Democratic Party of Socialists. The Bulatovic's illegitimate group had majority with the Socialist Party of Serbia in both Parliament Chambers. The Montenegrin Parliament decided to give the seats belonging to the unified Democratic Party of Socialists in the Federal Assembly to the party's remnants, and Milo Djukanovic requested the position of the FRY Prime Minister. Slobodan Milosevic ignored such requests, and the Democratic Party of Socialist's response was a complete withdrawal from all Federal bodies.

The relations between the two options grew strained in time, transferring the same to Serbian-Montenegrin relations. Djukanovic shifted from pro-Yugoslav orientation towards the independence of Montenegro, and offered Serbian authorities a platform for redefining relations within the federation. The platform was rejected and Montenegrin authorities started creating parallel state institutions.

The effect made by the Montenegrin and recent Federal Government was obvious. The politics of the Socialist Party of Serbia, Yugoslav Left and the Socialist People's Party coalition culminated in the 1999 NATO bombing, which took lives on all sides, and pushed the already demolished and isolated country further plunging into the abyss. Djukanovic held the media, companies and non-government organizations in control, the announced reforms had never began, and the Montenegrin people could not boast about their living standard.

The definite end of the FRY?

The issues regarding relations between the two republics and the future of Yugoslavia have seen no progress even after the changes in Serbia. Montenegro now faces new parliamentary elections and a referendum on state and legal status, which will determine survival of a unified state. According to the polls the pro-Montenegrin block could win around 55% of the votes, with 45% for the pro-Serbian.

Zoran Stojiljkovic, professor at the Belgrade Faculty of Political Science, believes that Yugoslavia will not be divided regardless. His supporting evidence lies in the fact that the European Union supports the unified state of Serbia and Montenegro. "The disintegration of the FRY would lead to borders changes in the Balkans. It would start with Montenegro, then Kosovo, while western Macedonia with its majority ethnic Albanian population would also remain in perspective. I do not believe that there will be any division of the FRY, but it is certain that some confederate loosening of relations will occur", professor Stojiljkovic emphasized.

In any case, it should be expected from the international community to play the major role in the issue, since the boiling political atmosphere in Montenegro does not provide basic conditions for making such an important decision such as the state and legal status of the country.

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