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Sunday, December 26, 2000 SERBIA 2001 
Daltonism on the political sceneHow are the Serbian political parties going to regroup, after the definite change of power and the imminent breakdown of the winning coalition? Serbia is the first country in Europe - by the number of registered political parties. Although a diffuse political scene is characteristic for all "young democracies" in Eastern Europe, 190 parties, which formally exist in Serbia, is undoubtedly a record figure. Serbia is also unusual due to the fact that replacements in the administration were absent from the transition process. Establishment of a multiparty system in 1990 was a mere formality: the development of true democratic environment was hampered by the autocratic regime of Slobodan Milosevic. Numerous parties with different names were founded, but in reality had no opportunity to present their platforms as alternatives to the ruling Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS).
The upshot of these conditions is a complete disregard for political orientations of the parties. In 2000, after numerous failed attempts, democratic parties finally formed wide enough coalition with a single goal: the change of regime and establishing the prerequisites for bringing to an end the 10-year-long crisis. Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) is an extremely heterogeneous coalition, judged by the ideological orientations of its 18 member parties, but still homogenous enough to make joint public appearance and fulfill the common goal. The success of DOS in the federal elections in September was confirmed on December 23, and thus the goal was fully accomplished. Political analysts are already interested in the way the layered structure of DOS parties will branch out and where the former "great" parties - Socialist Party of Serbia, Serbian Radical Party and Serbian Renewal Movement - will be repositioned on this new political spectrum. The socialist in all of usMost interesting will be the rearranging on the left side of the political scene. Social justice and protection of ethnic minorities rights are favourite figures of speech of politicians throughout the world, and Socialist Party of Serbia is a classic example of such "faux socialism." After the downfall of communism when the time for "changing clothes" came, the most fashionable attribute was "socialistic": ideologically, it was close enough to communism, and it was popular since socialist and social democrat parties rule in the most prosperous countries of western Europe. Similar changes took place in other Eastern Bloc countries, differing in one crucial aspect: those parties lost power in the onset of democracy so in the course of time spent in the opposition bloc, they had undergone interior reforms and finally, released from the burden of the past, they came to power again in many countries. Contrary to this model, Socialist Party of Serbia adopts a "Serbian version of national-socialism" where a decent standard of living is subordinated to the question of "national interests." The first party that clearly articulated that Socialist Party of Serbia had nothing to do with modern socialism was Civil Alliance of Serbia (GSS). The activities of this party at the beginning of the 90's were characteristically pacifist and anti-nationalist. After the left wing of Civil Alliance separated to form Social Democratic Union (SDU), the party moved towards center and ideologically became close to Democratic Party which since its inception belonged to the liberal, right center. This feature especially came to prominence in the "Zajedno" coalition where these two parties stood opposed to Serbian Renewal Movement, and later on when the Alliance for Changes (SZP) was formed. Milan Milosevic, a columnist with the Belgrade "Vreme" weekly, points out that the statements of Zoran Djindjic, the leader of Democratic Party (DS), indicate the approaching of this party to the left center. "Major concerns of the Serbian Prime Minister will be in the domain of social policy - illuminating are his statements concerning the rejection of attitude of the International Monetary Fund and prevention of the so-called shock therapy," says Milosevic. Formation of a group of parties of socialist and regional orientations, as well as the parties of ethnic minorities [Social Democratic Union, the League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina, the Reformists of Vojvodina, Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians, Coalition Sandzak and Coalition Sumadija] provided an impetus to the creation of a European version of left wing. This coalition, named Alliance of Democratic Parties (with quite a suggestive acronym [in Serbian] - SDP) is currently "submerged" in DOS. It remains to be seen which SDP parties will find a motive, after DOS breaks up, to integrate into a unique party of social democrat orientation. There are several runners for the coveted spot of "true leftist option", mostly parties founded after October 5 by once prominent members of SPS and the former regime: Social Democracy (Vuk Obradovic, former spokesman of Yugoslav Army), Democratic Socialist Party (Miloje Vucelic, former director of state TV) and Serbian Social Democratic Party (Zoran Lilic, former Prime Minister). "The main question is whether these parties are of socialist profile. Overall, they are all ideologically close, the question is if they have the infrastructure to be able to act as a traditional leftist party," Milosevic explains, adding: "SPS has controlled state unions, but now that the situation has drastically changed, of the remaining 'left' parties only Social Democratic Union is close to the union Independence." According to public opinion poll conducted by Center for Political Analysis (CPA), majority of citizens classify SPS and Mira Markovic's Yugoslav Left as the political "bloc of extreme left," whereas only 14 percent of citizens want this option to exist at all. Social Democracy and Social Democratic Union are recognized as "left center" parties. In this part of political spectrum, one more coalition from DOS will search for its place - DAN coalition which consists of Democratic Alternative, Democratic Center and New Democracy. Waiting for BrantOvernight, Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) became the unassailable leader of the right-centre, mostly resulting from the popularity of its leader Vojislav Kostunica. Polls indicate that DSS has up to 40 percent of popular support, making it by far the most popular party in Serbia at the moment. After Kostunica's visit to Hilandar Monastery and his statements concerning the national issues, we can conclude that Serbia has got its demo-Christian, "people's" option. Over 45 percent of those polled in the CPA survey support the formation of the right-centre bloc, including Serbian Democratic Christian Party (DHSS) and New Serbia next to DSS. However, it is not reasonable to expect that DSS would be willing to share their sudden popularity, especially considering the poor relationship between Kostunica and DHSS leader Vladan Batic, whose party was formed when a part of DSS members left that party.
Serbian Radical Party (SRS) secured the monopoly to the extreme right a while back. The percentage of votes it won at the recent elections is no greater than a similar party would get in countries with long-standing democratic traditions. According to the CPA survey, only some 12 percent of citizens support the existence of the "extreme right bloc." This percentage of supporters was confirmed at the Serbian elections - SRS and Party of Serbian Unity (SSJ) won together a bit more than that percentage. The greatest unknown of today's Serbian right is definitely Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO), founded as early as 1990, more as a radical movement against Slobodan Milosevic than as a traditional political party with a clear ideological orientation. However, national-royalist rhetoric soon brought SPO to identification with a conservative, "revisionist" option. In December elections, SPO was completely marginalized through miscalculation of party leadership. The question whether SPO is still able to exclusively represent the ideas of monarchy is very debatable. "Around 17 percent of citizens declare themselves as hard-line royalists. However, other democratic parties managed to make excellent contacts with Karadjordjevic royal family, and the new government will return the confiscated property to the royal family. SPO is in a deep crisis, and they are highly unlikely to get out of it with the monarchy story," comments Milan Milosevic. All the given prognoses have to be taken into consideration with a grain of salt. It takes several years to form a political system that would resemble the one in Great Britain, France or Germany. A tradition of democratic institutions has to exist, as well as the continuity of workers' unions and networks of non-government organizations. "Some analysts are doing no favour insisting on differences of opinion within DOS, for now the time has come for more important things, before launching deep social reforms. Concrete developments will help define the existing parties, but that will have to wait for some future elections," concludes Milan Milosevic, warning: "Some might think that we have finally got our Brant, but I believe we are closer to Adenauer. It took twenty years for Germany to come to a level where it could create a state of social affluence. I am not referring merely to the themes such as redemption of sins, but also the fact that a long period of economic reconstruction is before Serbia." Dusan Kosanovic
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