Natalee Holloway 8

Beach conditions

Wind

On that morning there was an off on off-shore breeze of about 15 mph.

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[12/3/07] Let's put this to bed

On Scrux;

drowned Posted: Sun May 28, 2006 2:47 am

Interesting read, but I think the wind direction was off, although that doesn't really effect the theory.
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Drowned has made a number of note-worthy observations, so I made the error of not checking this correction well enough. The correction itself was wrong - the wind at Palm Beach was off-shore, away from the beach at about 15 miles per hour during the time of interest, 0230 to 0330.

Weather Underground, Aruba 30th May 2005

Aruba is in the Trade Winds and “they are so constant that the trees grow at an angle”. So looking at this picture I noticed the error.

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Tide

The tide was falling on what is obviously a shelf-beach which would result in a general out-going current.

[12/3/07] Note: on one hand the tide range is quite small, however the wide flat shelf beach will tend to magnify the tide current. This magnification can be demonstrated by slowly lifting a flat object out of a tub of water - the current across the flat surface is greatest when it is parallel with the water surface.

Note the abrupt drop from midnight (“24”) onward.
From 1am to 3am the outgoing tide run is at a maximum
Source: http://www.shom.fr/ann_marees (computed)

[12/3/07] This seems to have caused a lot of confusion, so to clarify; this is a computed tide graph using a tool downloaded from www.shom.fr. Tide records were downloaded for the available nearby points; a tide chart for each port computed using the tool, and the two results compared. Only after reaonable agreement was obtained between recorded and computed was the tool then used to produce the tide graph shown here. There do not appear to be downloadable tide records specifically for Aruba so this chart is as close as you can get at the moment. I am satisfied it gives a true picture of what is really a small tide fluctuation.

Rip currents

Additionally, where she was allegedly left has a slight point and so happens to be right where one would expect an out-going “rip” from the beach, albeit a small one. In the aerial photo above a clear rip channel can be seen extending from the Fisherman's Huts area to the west-north-west.

A “rip” is a current local to a beach, generally caused by wind and wave action driving water up onto the beach. The current formed very generally flows from the middle of the beach to each end close to the shore, then turns outward at the headlands at the ends of the beach. Rips can take many forms including single-ended rather than double, and over-and-under which can form an undertow that can drag swimmers out. Palm Beach is quite sheltered but is still subject to constant off-shore winds.

“Rip” sounds dramatic, but I use it here as a technical term. While these currents will variously be present it is difficult to estimate their level of significance. We do know that normally in-shore currents are not considered to be a concern on these western beaches, but that they are a concern for people diving on wrecks only a mile or two north of the Huts. (see e.g. dive sites for current warnings on wrecks Pedernales, Rumrunner, Debbie II, Antilla; Arashi Reef and Underwater Park)

Aruba is also right smack dab in the middle of the trade winds, so there is always a strong wind blowing from east to west. The wind is so consistent that trees grow at an angle. It is so strong that swimming against the ocean current as hard as you can will only keep you from going down the beach; you won't make any ground.
http://www.urbanpotato.net/Default.aspx/document/1816

What this person seems to be talking about is the cross phase of the rip where it runs parallel to the beach until it gets to the ends and turns outward.

They went swimming just as the tide turned from high tide. About 30 swimmers got caught in the rip
forum.signonsandiego.com

Beyond the beach, very roughly about 1000 to 1500 metres out, there is a steady 2 to 5 knot current that flows past the island to the west. Some people consider this distance is written in stone, but there is a serious complication with this neat and simple approximation - the steady passing current will create large circulating current eddy's or vorticies on the downstream, or Palm Beach, side of the island.

So next, we'll take a closer look at vortex formation and shedding.

This process of downstream vortex-shedding may bring entrainment currents close to the beach. This is discussed by Harry Tho in the post “1/11” on Hyscience and confirmed as a possible risk by some Aruban contributors.

CNN LIVE TODAY
Aired June 21, 2005 - 10:59 ET
PENHAUL (voice-over): Teams have hunted here for signs of Natalee, but the wind and sand quickly obscure traces of anything that may be buried.

Beyond that, the sea stretches to the horizon. It's 690 miles due west to Panama. Any object that drifts off Aruba's west coast will eventually end up in Panama. We head out on the search and rescue boat to Manchebo Point [SW corner of Aruba], notorious because this is where two powerful ocean currents collide.

EFRAIN BOEKHUODT, SEARCH & RESCUE TEAM: Once you reach a certain point, really you'll get yourself in the current. And here is where most of the problems happen. Once you get in the current, you're going to drift about two miles an hour on a slow day.

PENHAUL: Any closer to shore, he says, and the surf could drag an object back to the beach. But here, with more than a mile and a half off Aruba's west coast, the water is more than 60 feet deep. We're going to test those currents.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Three, two, one. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK. Man overboard.

PENHAUL: Here, you can feel a menacing undertow and a strong swell. Boekhuodt tells me if they leave me in the water long enough, I'll drift northwest a few miles, then due west out into open ocean.
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0506/21/lt.04.html

Downstream Island Currents

As shown above the Caribbean Current flows past Aruba from ESE to WNW (east-to-west roughly).

This is a LandSat photo of a perfect example of an island creating and shedding vorticies (west to east).

In this case it's the air off the mountain causing circulations that are shown by the cloud, but something very similar is happening in the water due to the passing ocean current only it's all-but-impossible to actually see.

This is a simulation showing vortex formation and downstream shedding from a circular “island”. Note carefully the rotating vorticies that form and alternately sweep the downstream face of the “island”. This is our “Marriot Beach/Huts” side.

Animation

It should be remembered that the water mass is also moving vertically, and that generally the red areas are rising water and the blue areas are falling water.

Naturally the upwelling and falling water is more complex in reality with irregular-shaped islands, but the animation should give you the general idea.

In the case of Aruba the passing current is around 5 miles per hour. This may not sound like much but it's in excess of two metres or six feet every second, faster than most people can swim, and then only to stay in the same place.

Study by CSIRO of Rattray Island, Great Barrier Reef
Morphed to better represent Aruba - Red falling, Blue rising.

This is a slightly more realistic representation of the Aruban situation. This is a like a single frame taken from the animation above, and the large eddy or vortex rotation will periodically shed off the coast in the same manner, carrying anything entrained with it.

Notice in this example there is a gentle north-bound current along the western beach, say 1.5 miles an hour, but the distance to the much faster current at the north tip of Aruba is a mere three miles from the Huts; only two hours drift.

Given the shape of Aruba and the more end-on flow of the current the formation and shedding of vorticies will not be symmetrical as it is above with the circular island.

We would expect one rotation to be larger in diameter, slower moving, and stick to the coast for longer. The other rotation would be smaller in diameter but more energetic and possibly chaotic (several small circulations going the same way).

Dummy doubts?

It seems I'm not the only one with doubts about the dummy tests.

From 16th to the 20th April 2006, almost a year after Natalee disappeared, four boats from the Aruban Coast guard searched an undefined area off Palm Beach where she was last seen, using sonar and “other” equipment. The search was resumed a day or so later for an unknown time.

According to CBS reports, the ocean search for Natalee Holloway will resume again on Friday.

A team of several boats from Aruba's coast guard was planning to use sonar equipment Friday and focusing on the area off the shore of the hotel where Holloway stayed, at the northern end of the island, reports CBS News correspondent Bianca Solorzano.

April 21st, 2006 at 11:42am Posted by Scared Monkeys

Some posts by “Glenda” (a member of the Aruban media, who is thought to be either Aruba Today editor Julia Renfro, or someone close to her);

Sat Mar 25, 2006 11:02 pm
I am 100% sure that you would not return to shore!!! I don't care if the float dummy swam back to shore, Dr. Croes KNOWS from personal experience that a body would not return to shore!

Sat Mar 25, 2006 11:13 pm
Dr. Ruben Croes, according to 48 hours said that the body would return to shore. I've rescued hundreds of people who had been swept out by the wind and currents who COULDN'T SWIM back on their own. These people are seasoned athletes, not under the influence and not far of shore, who couldn't get back to the beach on their own.

Sun Apr 02, 2006 12:40 pm
(responding to comment: “Utah, the VF article mentioned a sandbar two hundred yards out to sea. Someone else has denied this exists. Do you know if it does?”)

It exists, it alway has and as far as I can tell it always will.

Sun Apr 23, 2006 9:43 am
responding to comment: “for non-dutch readers: this Dutch local argues that a body, taken out just a short distance into the sea, will not wash-up to the Aruban shore but drift towards Panama instead.”)

I agree witht the Dutch local!

Sun Apr 23, 2006 9:45 am (
responding to comment: “The only way the body could have disappeared would have been if she was taken far out which means a boat would have had to been used.”)

Sabrina, you are not correct. We tried it, once past the sand bar, next stop in Panama.

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Beach conditions summary

We only have to suppose that Natalee entered the water, and she may have done so for a number of reasons, swim, wake-up, wash, urinate, etc.

Given that;

• she had a BAC of at least 0.2
• she should have been taking pseudofed with her antibiotic Z-pack
• it was around 3am
• after a four-day binge
• that may have included other drugs
• and was reportedly nodding off in the car

...all that is requred is for her to faint or otherwise suffer a collapse, and she would almost certainly drown.

The elements of;

• an off-shore wind
• an outgoing tide
• on a shelf beach
• a possible rip channel returning water from the north end of Palm Beach

...may have been enough combined to carry her body out far enough to be entrained by the edge of the off-shore downstream circulation. It seems possible that by dawn, say around 5am, her body was already half a mile or more off the north tip of Aruba in a local 10 mile per hour flow.

Since a body would have sunk at some stage it is possible that her remains may one day be located by a diver somewhere in the popular dive areas north along the coast.

The sausage test

I'd like to sit at the Huts with a gas barby and an Eski full of sausages (and a few beers) every day through May, numbering sausages and throwing them into the sea when the wind and tides are similar, and record the results. But I can imagine what the Aruban tourist authorities would think of dead sausages washing up among the tourists.

I wonder if Beth would fund me? I'm available and very inexpensive.

The North coast, the California lighthouse area - they don't call the west coast “the wild side” for nothing.

Source: ZeroKarma - 200+ pix of Aruba

Sharks and Barracouda are well-known around the island.

Tips
Both snorkelers and divers need to keep a few things in mind while visiting the creatures under the ocean waves.
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Be aware of currents and stay watchful of your location. Getting too far off course can make returning difficult.
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Never wear jewelry. Caribbean fish, barracudas especially, seem to be drawn to shiny objects that look like their natural prey, small silver fish.
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Shark spottings are rare, and sharks that are spotted are usually passive. If you do see a shark, stay calm, and if necessary, move slowly out of the water.
http://aruba-guide.info/activities/diving.and.snorkeling/

  
Nurse Sharks are common around Aruba. Mainly nocternal and bottom feeders. Barracuda are also common in Aruban waters.


Nurse Sharks resting in groups during the day are a common sight for Aruban tourists.


The Great White shark is also found in Caribbean. While much less common than other shark species its huge bite is also much more dangerous to humans.

Misadventure

Despite the certainty of being abused as a heartless troll, the facts admit a construction that is nowhere near as titillating as 'drugs', date rape, murder, and cover-up with racial and jingoistic overtones (but doesn't rule any of those out) -

which is that Natalee died, by misadventure, by accident, and the reason that the three youths “won't tell what they did with Natalee” is that they can't, because they don't have any more idea than the rest of us what actually became of her.

So how did she leave the beach without a trace?

The ready exit path without a trace is right there - the sea.

Comparing the frequency of beach accidents to rape; the odds favor accident, misadventure, over crime.

Okay, for Kansas and Florida (where you are safer in the water) that isn't true, but for most beaches in the world it is generally true that the sea itself presents the greatest danger.

Was Aruba properly searched?

From Caribbean Net News

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Dear Sir:

Diana Hawks suggests that more should have been done by Aruba and its people to locate the missing Natalee Holloway.

Aruba, rashly and immediately, sent in 300 marines; three Royal Dutch Air Force F16s; gave 4,000 civil servants a half-day off to search; and local businesses donated over $1-million in free accomodation, food, alcoholic beverages and casino comps to the Holloway family and their associated TexasEquuSearch.

The US government sent, upon the express intercession of Representative the Honorable Spencer Bachus, 13 FBI agents to Aruba.

I say rashly because, recently, fellow Mountain Brook, Alabama, trip participants have released photographs of pre- and post-Aruba parties which indicate that alcohol use (and unlawful abuse, because the legal drinking age in Alabama is 21) was and is rife amongst Natalee and her coterie of friends. [party photos, above]
http://www.caribbeannetnews.com/

It is sometimes suggested that the van der Sloot home was not searched.

Houston Chronicle Update (6/15/2005 2:37pm):
Aruban police searched Joran's home today; two vehicles were also towed away:
NOORD, Aruba - Aruban police today searched the family home of a Dutch teen detained in the disappearance of an Alabama honors student and towed two vehicles from the property.

This search included sniffer dogs.

http://member.telpacific.com.au/rolyroper/NataleeHolloway/page08.htm | 15/04/06 | Last update: 17:46 03/05/07